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Guest Two-winged Cat

How Far Away Are We?

  

100 members have voted

  1. 1. How long do you think it will be before partial transformation is a reality?

    • Less than 1 year
      1
    • 1 to 2 years
      5
    • 2 to 5 years
      9
    • 5 to 10 years
      24
    • 10 to 20 years
      27
    • More than 20 years
      34
  2. 2. How long do you think it will be before total transformation is a reality?

    • Less than 1 year
      1
    • 1 to 2 years
      0
    • 2 to 5 years
      4
    • 5 to 10 years
      5
    • 10 to 20 years
      20
    • 20 to 50 years
      23
    • Longer than 50 years but within our lifetime
      10
    • Not within our lifetime
      37


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Guest Two-winged Cat   
Guest Two-winged Cat

To try and get some idea of where everyone believes we're at, I've put up a quick straw poll, the idea being that at the moment your answers may be somewhere lower down the list, but as things change you're free to update your answers as you believe appropriate. I hope this topic will provide some focus for useful discussion. :)

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Guest outkast1728   
Guest outkast1728

If by transformation you mean like physically turning one living thing into another, I believe its still science fiction.

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Kanibal   

I don't see why it would even develop. Millions wont be spent on transformations in the same way millions weren't spent developing the internet so we could play games on it. The technology would have to exist for a reason, then it would have to become acceptable and then it would have to carry on down the line until it was a consumer product. Then it would be adapted by furries so we could include it in our hobby.

Much the same was as the sewing machine and looms weren't developed to make fursuits but now a long time down the line when it's a commonplace technology we've adapted it to our hobby.

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So what you're saying is we have to wait until cellular reorganization is available as an app?

...Sorry, I couldn't resist. That does seem like a logical conclusion to me, and it does seem to be the common trend amongst many technological advancements, come to think of it.

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Esqui   

The technology could be developed within the next 20/30 years, but we've got much more to be getting on with and so it won't be available.

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As I said in the other thread:

Right now I have an entire series of Real World Partial Transformation projects on the design board. Currently I have two primary projects I am working on to fund them. The first is a WRPG and the second is a small internet cafe'. I need about 200k to fund it, and I hope to get that within the year.

I'll be looking for investments, and volunteers soon.

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Guest outkast1728   
Guest outkast1728

I'm willing to volunteer for anything you need help with.

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I'm willing to volunteer for anything you need help with.

Be careful what you wish for. -grins evilly- One of the projects requires being tortured under an EEG to study brain pathways.

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Guest Two-winged Cat   
Guest Two-winged Cat

I've always wondered about the effects on the brain of prolonged suffering. I'd be curious to see what you discover from this! :)

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Kanibal   

I think the 'be careful what you wish for' took the joke far enough. That seems a pretty silly and mildly OT thing to say...

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I think the 'be careful what you wish for' took the joke far enough. That seems a pretty silly and mildly OT thing to say...

Well honestly, by torture, I mean loud music, cold shower, things that create discomfort but don't actually do damage.

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Kanibal   

Well appologies for the double post but is this topic now dead after having made my point and then re-railed it? It seems to have loat momentum... Only the posts were bugged on an authentication thing and the bug wont clear if no one posts.

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I want to vote, but I think we really need definitions for those two terms you posted there.

I think everyone here has seen Stalking Cat's extensive surgical modification -- does that count as "partial"?

Also Kanibal, I wish to respectfully disagree on the "yes or no" aspect, while agreeing with you on the "how it could" aspect - I think that if this sort of thing happens, it will either be an unexpectedly lucrative proof-of-concept, or a modestly profitable spinoff from legitimate medical techniques. I think enough young people know what furry is - or at least, have heard the term before - that this sort of discussion can happen at all, which is a good first step.

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Guest ferretferret   
Guest ferretferret

It's really not a question of when this technology gets here, but when it will be greeted by general society with open arms.

One only needs to glance at how society has accepted stem cell research (stem cells, of all things!) to realize what a tremendous journey we have yet to embark upon.

Still, here's hoping. >_> *Crosses fingers*

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Stem cells has a bit of unnecessary baggage that we can avoid, at least - I can't imagine how the old, ugly debate of pro choice/pro life can be brought to bear on us.

If you're about as old as I am, our children may be forward thinking enough that we can get properly fuzzed around retirement age, even in my more pessimistic estimates of human nature.

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Stem cells has a bit of unnecessary baggage that we can avoid, at least - I can't imagine how the old, ugly debate of pro choice/pro life can be brought to bear on us.

My point exactly.

If you're about as old as I am, our children may be forward thinking enough that we can get properly fuzzed around retirement age, even in my more pessimistic estimates of human nature.

One of the reasons I'm trying to get on with it. If we don't do something in this kind of direction, who, pray tell, will?

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You know, the scary thing is, we could perform this surgery on anything and anyone once perfected, at any age. It may even get to the point where they toss you in a vat for a few weeks and when you come out of it, wammo. Fuzzy paws. But humans, oddly enough, are so afraid of change that they would be willing to thwart any progress in these fields. It's my guess why the gov hides some of the technology. The truth is very scary.

After 2012, this conversation will take on a whole new perspective. There's lots of research that will be completed this year and new technologies that will forever change the face of humanity. We may even see cyborg tech. So this could lead to military grade anthros. Could you imagine the implications of so fiercome a predator? We ought to figure out the anatomy we want and do the research if we want to change our image. That's personally how I see it. While these discussions are nice, they banter about a dated subject taht for the moment, we can do very little about.

I do have a question though, how would you make humanoid paws with retractable claws work? And how will digitigrade locomotion affect the daily life of anthros?

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Guest apersonwhoknows   
Guest apersonwhoknows

You know, the scary thing is, we could perform this surgery on anything and anyone once perfected, at any age. It may even get to the point where they toss you in a vat for a few weeks and when you come out of it, wammo. Fuzzy paws. But humans, oddly enough, are so afraid of change that they would be willing to thwart any progress in these fields. It's my guess why the gov hides some of the technology. The truth is very scary.

After 2012, this conversation will take on a whole new perspective. There's lots of research that will be completed this year and new technologies that will forever change the face of humanity. We may even see cyborg tech. So this could lead to military grade anthros. Could you imagine the implications of so fiercome a predator? We ought to figure out the anatomy we want and do the research if we want to change our image. That's personally how I see it. While these discussions are nice, they banter about a dated subject taht for the moment, we can do very little about.

I do have a question though, how would you make humanoid paws with retractable claws work? And how will digitigrade locomotion affect the daily life of anthros?

That's why darpa is doing what they are doing precisely with the military. They are already (if you guys would even believe this if I told ya here) that they are already blending people with the animal kingdom. Dan and I would know this. Of course, the Gov. would hide other such tech. from the people and doing other "hush hush" stuff behind closed doors. (and that's no surprise there) Other countries are apparently doing this as well, not just us.

There are league scientists that are preforming these things. They want to get ahead so to speak and be in line with the enemy(s), so the U.S. doesn't get beat to death. Even the U.S. constitution is going to be changed a bit for accommodating these new races of people. (if you wanna call them that)

Sorry, I feel this important info needed to be said here if no one didn't know before.

Edited by apersonwhoknows

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Guest apersonwhoknows   
Guest apersonwhoknows

DO you have any quotes? *is looking up darpa*

it's short. But it should give you guys the answers.

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You know, the scary thing is, we could perform this surgery on anything and anyone once perfected, at any age. It may even get to the point where they toss you in a vat for a few weeks and when you come out of it, wammo. Fuzzy paws. But humans, oddly enough, are so afraid of change that they would be willing to thwart any progress in these fields. It's my guess why the gov hides some of the technology. The truth is very scary.

After 2012, this conversation will take on a whole new perspective. There's lots of research that will be completed this year and new technologies that will forever change the face of humanity. We may even see cyborg tech. So this could lead to military grade anthros. Could you imagine the implications of so fiercome a predator? We ought to figure out the anatomy we want and do the research if we want to change our image. That's personally how I see it. While these discussions are nice, they banter about a dated subject taht for the moment, we can do very little about.

I do have a question though, how would you make humanoid paws with retractable claws work? And how will digitigrade locomotion affect the daily life of anthros?

What's scarier than the truth? Not knowing. ^_^

I expect cyborgs before furries. Seriously, I haven't seen that much chrome on a limb since I ran out of new cyberpunk novels to read. Also, military-grade cyborgs will come long before military grade anthers, if only because we're already really good at equipping standard-shaped humans, and we have so many crippled vets who could be back in action with a new limb or two, or perhaps a set of replacement eyeballs. They're already trained, and training grunts is startlingly not cheap - the lowest-ranking enlisted man that goes overseas ate about $1 million in training expenses. Specialists and technicians are more spendy still. Military-grade anthros will probably only come when someone who has already paid for a conversion is drafted or tries to enlist, or some clever defense contractor tries to get ahead of demand.

I dunno about you guys, but I'm taking animal physiology this semester. :D

To answer your questions, the former is unpleasantly difficult, and may involve adding another bone to the fingers; it will be just big enough to house the nail bed, and that's about it. The latter will probably only make it harder to buy shoes. Higher ground pressure may cause them to wear out faster, less material will make them cheaper. Snow and mud will be easier to sink into, however.

That's why darpa is doing what they are doing precisely with the military. They are already (if you guys would even believe this if I told ya here) that they are already blending people with the animal kingdom. Dan and I would know this. Of course, the Gov. would hide other such tech. from the people and doing other "hush hush" stuff behind closed doors. (and that's no surprise there) Other countries are apparently doing this as well, not just us.

There are league scientists that are preforming these things. They want to get ahead so to speak and be in line with the enemy(s), so the U.S. doesn't get beat to death. Even the U.S. constitution is going to be changed a bit for accommodating these new races of people. (if you wanna call them that)

Sorry, I feel this important info needed to be said here if no one didn't know before.

I beg to differ - it's openly going on in the US too, if under other guises: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/how-engineering-the-human-body-could-combat-climate-change/253981/

I think we need to realize that we're operating in the context of a transhumanist movement who wants to spend a lot of time and resources on re-engineering the human body. You can come up with a reason that modified humans - including the cost of doing the modification - have a lower lifecycle energy (read: carbon) cost, you may get research grants. DARPA tends to prefer drugs and surgical modifications; there's a good chance that those are going to be cheaper - fewer "required secondary powers". Don't have to figure out the incredibly difficult and complicated immunological modifications to add some novel cell-surface proteins, after all.

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Guest apersonwhoknows   
Guest apersonwhoknows

What's scarier than the truth? Not knowing. ^_^

I expect cyborgs before furries. Seriously, I haven't seen that much chrome on a limb since I ran out of new cyberpunk novels to read. Also, military-grade cyborgs will come long before military grade anthers, if only because we're already really good at equipping standard-shaped humans, and we have so many crippled vets who could be back in action with a new limb or two, or perhaps a set of replacement eyeballs. They're already trained, and training grunts is startlingly not cheap - the lowest-ranking enlisted man that goes overseas ate about $1 million in training expenses. Specialists and technicians are more spendy still. Military-grade anthros will probably only come when someone who has already paid for a conversion is drafted or tries to enlist, or some clever defense contractor tries to get ahead of demand.

I dunno about you guys, but I'm taking animal physiology this semester. :D

To answer your questions, the former is unpleasantly difficult, and may involve adding another bone to the fingers; it will be just big enough to house the nail bed, and that's about it. The latter will probably only make it harder to buy shoes. Higher ground pressure may cause them to wear out faster, less material will make them cheaper. Snow and mud will be easier to sink into, however.

I beg to differ - it's openly going on in the US too, if under other guises: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/how-engineering-the-human-body-could-combat-climate-change/253981/

I think we need to realize that we're operating in the context of a transhumanist movement who wants to spend a lot of time and resources on re-engineering the human body. You can come up with a reason that modified humans - including the cost of doing the modification - have a lower lifecycle energy (read: carbon) cost, you may get research grants. DARPA tends to prefer drugs and surgical modifications; there's a good chance that those are going to be cheaper - fewer "required secondary powers". Don't have to figure out the incredibly difficult and complicated immunological modifications to add some novel cell-surface proteins, after all.

Well, I'm mostly talking about using genes from certain mammals and putting it into soldiers is what I'm getting at here. If you could tell me what I said confused you I would be glad to tell you here. Otherwise whatever you told me would be invalid. I should know, I do my research pretty throughly. Sure, they could use modifications and drugs to do whatever for cheap. But this is the way is what they are doing it, not only to be/end up being something different. But to see in the spirit world and other things. And could lead to physical changes outside the body. Depending on what mammal you choose and "if" it truly does anything to you physically.

Edited by apersonwhoknows

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[media=]

it's short. But it should give you guys the answers.

It's a little lousy, and a little brilliant. Better resources can be found at H+ Magazine and Singularity Hub. A more comprehensive view on the subject would trace those same trends back to the invention of spectacles and dentistry. It would also point out that the average American carries enough computational power in their pocket to run a small space program on; with the right software, an iPhone could design the rocket, run mission control, and act as the flight-control system. With an iPhone and efficient software, you might be able to automate mission control. With a subscription to Google Earth, you can get access to distressingly up-to-date satellite imagery of the entire globe; my phone and a credit card provides better recon and intelligence-gathering capabilities than many nation-states have these days. I can spread video of current events in real time to a billion people, and the democratization of computing power has lead to a shadowy global legion of hackers with as much pull in the international relations field as some nations. Other nations have fallen because the same technologies made it possible to organize a rebellion in ways that mostly negated the considerable technology advantage of the established powers.

Cognitive enhancement probably goes back to the first coffeehouses in Europe, the so-called "penny universities" where academics congregated, and one could discuss the latest discoveries for the cost of coffee and a sandwich. Amusingly enough, that year the number of industrial accidents plummeted as people tended to substitute coffee for beer, as the water in London was never terribly drinkable.

What's changed? We're not taking these changes for granted, now we're thinking about the implications and future consequences.

Well, I'm mostly talking about using genes from certain mammals and putting it into soldiers is what I'm getting at here. If you could tell me what I said confused you I would be glad to tell you here. Otherwise whatever you told me would be invalid. I should know, I do my research pretty throughly. Sure, they could use modifications and drugs to do whatever for cheap. But this is the way is what they are doing it, not only to be/end up being something different. But to see in the spirit world and other things. And could lead to physical changes outside the body. Depending on what mammal you choose and "if" it truly does anything to you physically.

I'm not sure I miss my point, and the "if" is thoroughly confusing. Putting genes into people is always risky, and fi the gene product - usually a protein, sometimes RNA - is exposed to the immune system, bad things often happen. If the gene is inserted wrong - and it's horribly hard to do it right, reliably - it will cause cancer, most commonly leukemia. That's why most of the human gene therapy treatments were halted. But we're making cyborgs right now. I'm using cognitive-enhancemend drugs, and have been for a year and change. There are two transgenic humans, if I remember correctly, and both are either dead or dying as a result of their treatment.

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